Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Eyüpspor meet at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 3D 1L at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Eyüpspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Başakşehir, 1.40 for Eyüpspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Eyüpspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Eyüpspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.56 xG and Eyüpspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / defence 0.800 | Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Eyüpspor 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Başakşehir 1.56 / Eyüpspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / def 0.800 | Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Eyüpspor xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Başakşehir and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 2 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.14x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.86x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.93
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Eyüpspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.84 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 17W 10D 10L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor's form line: 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eyüpspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Eyüpspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 56%, Eyüpspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 44% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 44% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Başakşehir's recent games and 44% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.