Antalyaspor 2-1 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Antalyaspor welcome İstanbulspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
İstanbulspor — All Games: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antalyaspor 0.80 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.89 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 44% versus İstanbulspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 44% | İstanbulspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.30 xG and İstanbulspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.994 / defence 1.102 | İstanbulspor attack 0.779 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.289. Data: 47 Antalyaspor games / 9 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | İstanbulspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | İstanbulspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Antalyaspor 1.30 / İstanbulspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.994 / def 1.102 | İstanbulspor attack 0.779 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 İstanbulspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 41% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against İstanbulspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.64
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.40
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.11 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
İstanbulspor's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 0.78 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.89 PPG overall record — İstanbulspor travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, İstanbulspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
İstanbulspor's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 0.80 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Antalyaspor 2-2 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 40%, İstanbulspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Antalyaspor and 20% for İstanbulspor.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 60% of games; İstanbulspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 40% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 20% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out İstanbulspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat İstanbulspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.30 xG and İstanbulspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against İstanbulspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 44%, İstanbulspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.78 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.