Antalyaspor 1-2 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Antalyaspor and Pendikspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Antalyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Pendikspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Pendikspor away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Antalyaspor's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pendikspor's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Pendikspor's last 10 away games) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pendikspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Antalyaspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2024, ended Antalyaspor 1–0 Pendikspor — a Antalyaspor win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 56% and Pendikspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 41% | Pendikspor 53%). Note also that Pendikspor surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Antalyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.73 xG and Pendikspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.838 / defence 0.869 | Pendikspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.241. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Pendikspor's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 70 games and Pendikspor's last 34.

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 57% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.76 | Draw 3.77 | Pendikspor 5.95. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Pendikspor 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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