Antalyaspor 1-4 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.70 for Gaziantep FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Gaziantep FK have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Antalyaspor's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Gaziantep FK winning.
It is worth noting that Gaziantep FK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Gaziantep FK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.136 / defence 1.234 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.861 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.226. Data: 61 Antalyaspor games / 61 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Gaziantep FK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Gaziantep FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Antalyaspor 1.70 / Gaziantep FK 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.136 / def 1.234 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.861 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gaziantep FK xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Antalyaspor 1 - 4 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (9 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Gaziantep FK 5W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.14x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.86x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.29
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.00
1.30
Gaziantep FK xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.30 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 14D 29L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 19W 18D 24L from 61 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.23 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 10D 15L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 14D 29L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
6
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-4 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Antalyaspor, 63% for Gaziantep FK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Antalyaspor and 67% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Antalyaspor's games and 63% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antalyaspor's matches and 67% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Antalyaspor 1-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gaziantep FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.