Antalyaspor 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Antalyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Antalyaspor hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Antalyaspor 2–1 Alanyaspor — a Antalyaspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Antalyaspor and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Alanyaspor 49%). Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 45% of cases while Antalyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.007 | Alanyaspor attack 0.720 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 65.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.06 | Draw 3.50 | Alanyaspor 4.37. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Antalyaspor 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.39 / Alanyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.886 / def 1.007 | Alanyaspor attack 0.720 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.26
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.87 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 21W 19D 25L from 65 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 23D 22L across 65 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 15W 11D 6L from their last 32 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 7W 11D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 20W 23D 22L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 3-0 Alanyaspor.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Antalyaspor) and 41% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Alanyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 41% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 69% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Alanyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.