Ankaragücü 0-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Konyaspor travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.47 xG and Konyaspor 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Konyaspor attack 1.074 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.376. Data: 0 Ankaragücü games / 38 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Ankaragücü 1.47 / Konyaspor 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Konyaspor attack 1.074 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Konyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ankaragücü and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ankaragücü and Konyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.85) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.09
25%
3.95
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.17
1.70
Konyaspor xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.70 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Pre-Season
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ankaragücü and Konyaspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Konyaspor 1-0 Ankaragücü.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ankaragücü's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Konyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.47 xG and Konyaspor 1.70 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Konyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 42%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.