Amed vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amed and Rizespor meet at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Amed, 1.70 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Amed half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amed 33% | Rizespor 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 67% | Rizespor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.51 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.123 / defence 0.960 | Rizespor attack 1.026 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Rizespor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 44% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Rizespor 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 44% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Amed 1.51 / Rizespor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.123 / def 0.960 | Rizespor attack 1.026 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Amed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rizespor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Rizespor kick off?
Amed vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Rizespor part of?
Amed vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 44% chance of winning, Rizespor a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Amed and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Rizespor in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.03x) against Amed's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.94
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Amed xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Rizespor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Amed and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Amed and 1.20 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Amed against 2.00 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Amed or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Amed) and 33% (Rizespor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Amed) and 33% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor in 33%; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games; Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 33% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 33% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Rizespor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.