Amed vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amed and Çorum FK meet at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.00 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Amed's 2.00 PPG return is 1.67 points per game ahead of Çorum FK's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Çorum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 33% versus Çorum FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 67% | Çorum FK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.57 xG and Çorum FK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.122 / defence 0.962 | Çorum FK attack 1.086 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Amed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Amed games / 3 Çorum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 65% | Draw 17% | Çorum FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Çorum FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Amed (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Çorum FK 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 65% | Draw 17% | Çorum FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG Amed 2.57 / Çorum FK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.122 / def 0.962 | Çorum FK attack 1.086 / def 1.569 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Amed (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Çorum FK xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Çorum FK kick off?
Amed vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Çorum FK part of?
Amed vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 65% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Amed and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Çorum FK in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Çorum FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Çorum FK's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (1.09x) against Amed's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
65%
1.53
17%
5.73
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Amed xG
Total xG
3.84
1.27
Çorum FK xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
8%
13.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
1%
76.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Amed and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Amed and 1.27 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Çorum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Amed have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Çorum FK's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Çorum FK.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 1.33 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Çorum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Amed or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 33%, Çorum FK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Amed and 67% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games; Çorum FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 67% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Amed's matches and 67% of Çorum FK's.
Do Amed and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.