Altay 1-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Altay host Adana Demirspor at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Altay — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Altay are significantly better at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Adana Demirspor — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Altay trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Altay 67% and Adana Demirspor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 67% | Adana Demirspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.38 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.860 / defence 1.102 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.964 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.104. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Altay games / 12 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 42% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Adana Demirspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Altay at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Altay 50% | Adana Demirspor 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 42% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Altay 1.38 / Adana Demirspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.860 / def 1.102 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.964 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Altay (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Adana Demirspor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Altay vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Altay vs Adana Demirspor?
Altay 1 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Altay vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Altay vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Altay vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 42% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Altay and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Adana Demirspor in?
Altay (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Altay's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.77
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Altay xG
Total xG
2.55
1.17
Adana Demirspor xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Altay and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Altay and 1.17 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Altay's recent record stands at 5W 1D 6L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 4L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Altay on 1.33 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Altay have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Altay are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Altay's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.67 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Altay and Adana Demirspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
0
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Adana Demirspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Adana Demirspor 3-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Altay at 50%, Adana Demirspor at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Altay) and 67% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Altay's games and 83% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Altay vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Altay's matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Altay and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Altay.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Altay 1-3 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.38 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 42% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 32%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 67%, Adana Demirspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 1.33 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Altay (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.