Alanyaspor 0-4 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trabzonspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Alanyaspor 0W, Trabzonspor 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.39 xG and Trabzonspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.196 / defence 1.157 | Trabzonspor attack 1.097 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.136. Data: 25 Alanyaspor games / 25 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Alanyaspor 1.39 / Trabzonspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.196 / def 1.157 | Trabzonspor attack 1.097 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Trabzonspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 4 Trabzonspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.20x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.10x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.82
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.44
Trabzonspor xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.44 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 25 games, going 11W 7D 7L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.40 PPG from 25 outings (18W 6D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 2.42 points per game from 12 outings (9W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.76 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 18W 6D 1L in their last 25 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 58%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 58% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Alanyaspor 0-4 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.39 xG and Trabzonspor 1.44 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.16 against Trabzonspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 38%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.