Alanyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 47%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Rizespor away from home: 2W 3D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 9 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Alanyaspor have won 1, Rizespor 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Alanyaspor 0–0 Rizespor — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 45% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Rizespor 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.69 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.949 / defence 1.159 | Rizespor attack 0.838 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.225. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 56 games and Rizespor's last 20.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.12 | Draw 3.60 | Rizespor 3.98. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 9 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 67% (last 9 away games).

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