Alanyaspor 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Hatayspor travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAIN Park Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.20 PPG versus Hatayspor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Hatayspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.62 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.977 / defence 0.988 | Hatayspor attack 1.005 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.299. Data: 42 Alanyaspor games / 42 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Hatayspor 3.33. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Alanyaspor 1.62 / Hatayspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.977 / def 0.988 | Hatayspor attack 1.005 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hatayspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.96
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Hatayspor xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.29 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 18D 12L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor's form line: 9W 15D 18L from 42 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.29 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (7W 10D 4L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 12W 18D 12L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2022, when Alanyaspor won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Hatayspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Hatayspor 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 67%, Hatayspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Alanyaspor) and 43% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alanyaspor's games and 48% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 43% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Hatayspor finished level at 0-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.62 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Hatayspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 30%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Hatayspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.29 PPG, Hatayspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.