Alanyaspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–5 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 61% | Fenerbahçe 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.030 / defence 0.941 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.281 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.245. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Alanyaspor games / 61 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 42%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 1.31 / Fenerbahçe 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.030 / def 0.941 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.281 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fenerbahçe xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Alanyaspor 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.98
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.50
Fenerbahçe xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.50 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 14D 22L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.03 PPG from 61 outings (37W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 15W 8D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.93 points per game from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.15 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 37W 13D 11L in their last 61 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.77 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 57%, Fenerbahçe 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Alanyaspor and 60% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Alanyaspor's games and 63% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Alanyaspor's matches and 60% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 33% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 42%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 61%, Fenerbahçe 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.