Alanyaspor 2-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.80 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Beşiktaş 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.95 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.311 / defence 1.436 | Beşiktaş attack 0.911 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.101. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Alanyaspor games / 12 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 22% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Beşiktaş 3.57. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 22% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Alanyaspor 1.95 / Beşiktaş 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.311 / def 1.436 | Beşiktaş attack 0.911 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 2 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.31x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.56
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.39
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
4%
24.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.75 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Alanyaspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 60%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Alanyaspor and 60% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Alanyaspor's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Alanyaspor's matches and 60% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 2-0 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.95 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.44 against Beşiktaş attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 22% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Beşiktaş 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.75 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.