Adana Demirspor 3-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sivasspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 54% and Sivasspor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.80 xG and Sivasspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.203 / defence 0.952 | Sivasspor attack 1.037 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.327. Data: 39 Adana Demirspor games / 39 Sivasspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 48% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 3.70. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 70% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 48% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.80 / Sivasspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.203 / def 0.952 | Sivasspor attack 1.037 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sivasspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 48% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.20x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.12
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.11
1.31
Sivasspor xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.31 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 10D 13L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.41 PPG from 39 outings (14W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.49 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 16W 10D 13L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.68 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 47%, Sivasspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Adana Demirspor) and 58% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Adana Demirspor's games and 68% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 58% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Sivasspor 3-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.80 xG and Sivasspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.95 against Sivasspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 48% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 27%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.49 PPG, Sivasspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.