Adana Demirspor 2-4 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sivasspor at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 1D 9L — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Adana Demirspor at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sivasspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Sivasspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Adana Demirspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's (from Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 4–1 Sivasspor — a Adana Demirspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Sivasspor trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 63% and Sivasspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Sivasspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.27 xG and Sivasspor 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.840 / defence 1.524 | Sivasspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.288. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.524 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sivasspor's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 46 games and Sivasspor's last 47.

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 26% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.78 | Draw 4.21 | Sivasspor 2.01. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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