Trabzonspor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 1.30 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 3, Konyaspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Konyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Konyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.72 xG and Konyaspor 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.140 / defence 1.090 | Konyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.279. Data: 43 Trabzonspor games / 44 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 60% | Konyaspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Trabzonspor 1.72 / Konyaspor 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.140 / def 1.090 | Konyaspor attack 1.023 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Konyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 44% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trabzonspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.96
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.15
1.43
Konyaspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.43 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 9D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (11W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 9D 13L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.86 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 62%, Konyaspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Trabzonspor) and 43% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Trabzonspor's games and 52% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 43% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.72 xG and Konyaspor 1.43 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Konyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Konyaspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.