Trabzonspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Beşiktaş travel to Medical Park Stadyumu to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trabzonspor at Medical Park Stadyumu this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Medical Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 2.10 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Beşiktaş 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 63% and Beşiktaş 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.67 xG and Beşiktaş 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.142 / defence 0.967 | Beşiktaş attack 0.896 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.250. Data: 30 Trabzonspor games / 30 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 24%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 4.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Trabzonspor 1.67 / Beşiktaş 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.142 / def 0.967 | Beşiktaş attack 0.896 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Beşiktaş xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 51% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.02
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.08
Beşiktaş xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.08 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 30 games, going 21W 7D 2L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 11W 4D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 7D 2L in their last 30 games (2.33 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.47 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 60%, Beşiktaş 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, as Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.67 xG and Beşiktaş 1.08 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 24%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Beşiktaş 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.