Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sivasspor welcome Konyaspor to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sivasspor stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sivasspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 0.50 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sivasspor: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Konyaspor, with 2 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Sivasspor 0–0 Konyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Sivasspor an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Konyaspor trading profile (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 57% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 51% | Konyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.69 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.983 / defence 1.089 | Konyaspor attack 0.869 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.215. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 61 games and Konyaspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 49% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.03 | Draw 3.91 | Konyaspor 3.97. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Sivasspor 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 49% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sivasspor 1.69 / Konyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.983 / def 1.089 | Konyaspor attack 0.869 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Konyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 49% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sivasspor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 61 games and Konyaspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.91
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.15
Konyaspor xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.15 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 20W 17D 24L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 20D 26L across 61 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.26 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 11W 12D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 6W 10D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 26L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 58%, Konyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sivasspor) and 42% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sivasspor's games and 55% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sivasspor's recent games and 42% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 64% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, as Sivasspor and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.69 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Konyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 49% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 51%, Konyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.26 PPG, Konyaspor 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.