Sivasspor 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 34 as Sivasspor welcome Konyaspor to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.60 PPG, Konyaspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Sivasspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Konyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Konyaspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.018 / defence 0.900 | Konyaspor attack 0.863 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.238. Data: 69 Sivasspor games / 69 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 32% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Konyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Konyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 44% | Draw 32% | Konyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Sivasspor 1.38 / Konyaspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.018 / def 0.900 | Konyaspor attack 0.863 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Konyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 44% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sivasspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 3W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.14
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Konyaspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.96 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 22W 20D 27L from 69 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 27D 22L across 69 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.25 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 10W 15D 9L from 34 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 10W 14D 10L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 20D 27L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 20W 27D 22L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Konyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 65%, Konyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sivasspor) and 53% (Konyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sivasspor's games and 53% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sivasspor's recent games and 53% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Konyaspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 44% | Draw 32% | Konyaspor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Konyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.25 PPG, Konyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.