Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 41%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sivasspor are significantly better at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Beşiktaş have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Sivasspor's 2 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 57% versus Beşiktaş 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Beşiktaş 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / defence 1.020 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.256. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Sivasspor games / 58 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sivasspor 1.38 / Beşiktaş 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / def 1.020 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (7 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 5W.
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.36
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.50
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.12 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 16D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.52 PPG from 58 outings (24W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 11W 11D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.40 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 59%, Beşiktaş 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sivasspor) and 45% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sivasspor's games and 59% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sivasspor's recent games and 45% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 0-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.