Rizespor 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Trabzonspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.00 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 3, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.796 / defence 1.011 | Trabzonspor attack 0.769 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.325. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Rizespor games / 48 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Trabzonspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Rizespor 0.91 / Trabzonspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.796 / def 1.011 | Trabzonspor attack 0.769 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Rizespor 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rizespor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 3W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.38
34%
2.91
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.94
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.03 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 17W 9D 22L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 23W 10D 15L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.25 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 7D 8L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 17W 9D 22L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 23W 10D 15L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.75 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rizespor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Trabzonspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rizespor) and 46% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 54% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rizespor's recent games and 46% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.91 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Trabzonspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 30% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 36%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.25 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.