Konyaspor 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Konyaspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rizespor's record over their last 4 games: 2W 1D 1L (1.75 PPG). Last five: L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.75 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2022, ended Konyaspor 1–2 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 50% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 0% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.996 / defence 0.854 | Rizespor attack 1.047 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.337. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 40 games and Rizespor's last 4.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.43 | Draw 3.08 | Rizespor 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 4 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 5 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Konyaspor 1.52 / Rizespor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.996 / def 0.854 | Rizespor attack 1.047 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rizespor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 5) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Rizespor a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.00) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.05x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 40 games and Rizespor's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Rizespor xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.20 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 0L record — D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.75 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Rizespor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Konyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rizespor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Rizespor on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Konyaspor and 50% for Rizespor.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 25% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 75% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 0%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 2.00 PPG, Rizespor 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.