Konyaspor 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.75 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 50% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 0% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.996 / defence 0.854 | Rizespor attack 1.047 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.337. Data: 40 Konyaspor games / 4 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Rizespor 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Konyaspor 1.52 / Rizespor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.996 / def 0.854 | Rizespor attack 1.047 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rizespor xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Rizespor a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.00) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.05x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 40/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Rizespor xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.20 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 0L record — D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.75 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Rizespor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Konyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rizespor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
3
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Konyaspor and 50% for Rizespor.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.52 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 0%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 2.00 PPG, Rizespor 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.