Kayserispor 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kayserispor, 4 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 56% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.825 / defence 1.406 | Trabzonspor attack 0.991 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.251. Data: 57 Kayserispor games / 57 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Trabzonspor 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.825 / def 1.406 | Trabzonspor attack 0.991 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 31% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.75
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.21
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.74 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 14W 19D 24L from 57 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 19L across 57 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 7W 11D 10L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 19D 24L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 11D 19L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.14 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 57%, Trabzonspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 54% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games; Trabzonspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Kayserispor's games and 61% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kayserispor's recent games and 54% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Trabzonspor finished level at 0-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.74 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.82 / defence 1.41 against Trabzonspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.