Kayserispor 2-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 5W 1D 4L at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.90 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Adana Demirspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 55% | Adana Demirspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.083 / defence 0.856 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.341 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.266. Adana Demirspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Kayserispor games / 49 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 38% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 38% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Kayserispor 1.48 / Adana Demirspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.083 / def 0.856 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.341 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Adana Demirspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 38% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.34x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
38%
2.62
25%
4.06
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.93
1.45
Adana Demirspor xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.45 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 18W 12D 19L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 14L across 49 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.57 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 14W 4D 6L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 9W 6D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 21W 14D 14L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.92 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kayserispor
6
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 1, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-2 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Adana Demirspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Kayserispor and 62% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kayserispor's games and 62% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kayserispor's matches and 62% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 2-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.48 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.34 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 38% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 37%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 55%, Adana Demirspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.35 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.