Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Samsunspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Samsunspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Samsunspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 56% versus Samsunspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Samsunspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.18 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / defence 0.931 | Samsunspor attack 0.870 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.178. Data: 41 Kasımpaşa games / 41 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 41% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Samsunspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 40% | Samsunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 41% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.18 / Samsunspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.830 / def 0.931 | Samsunspor attack 0.870 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Samsunspor xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Kasımpaşa 4 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 41% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.83) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.40
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.13
0.95
Samsunspor xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.95 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 15D 16L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (14W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.10 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 9D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 15D 16L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.20 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor?
From 7 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 45%, Samsunspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 60% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 4-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.18 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Samsunspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 41% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 30%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 44%, Samsunspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.10 PPG, Samsunspor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.