Kasımpaşa 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 36%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.83 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 3D 0L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.83. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Konyaspor — 1.17 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.83). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Konyaspor trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 33% versus Konyaspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kasımpaşa 17% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.92 xG and Konyaspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.903 / defence 1.105 | Konyaspor attack 0.744 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.025. Data: 6 Kasımpaşa games / 6 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Konyaspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Konyaspor's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 33% | Konyaspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Kasımpaşa 0.92 / Konyaspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.903 / def 1.105 | Konyaspor attack 0.744 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Konyaspor xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.90x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.01
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
1.77
0.84
Konyaspor xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.84 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Kasımpaşa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.33 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Konyaspor tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kasımpaşa 33% BTTS, Konyaspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kasımpaşa and 0% for Konyaspor.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Konyaspor in 67%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 33% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 0% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 0.92 xG and Konyaspor 0.84 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Konyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.86, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 31%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 17%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.