Hatayspor 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 38%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mersin Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rizespor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rizespor are 1.10 PPG clear of Hatayspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Hatayspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 58% versus Rizespor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 49% | Rizespor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.28 xG and Rizespor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.754 / defence 1.153 | Rizespor attack 0.814 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.211. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Hatayspor games / 55 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 31%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Rizespor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 60% | Rizespor 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Hatayspor 1.28 / Rizespor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.754 / def 1.153 | Rizespor attack 0.814 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rizespor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Hatayspor 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Rizespor part of?
Hatayspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 38% chance of winning, Rizespor a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hatayspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Record (4 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.81x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.41
1.14
Rizespor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.14 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 10W 20D 25L from 55 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 24L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.29 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 8W 10D 9L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 6W 3D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.18 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 20D 25L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 20W 11D 24L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Rizespor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 5-2 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 70%, Rizespor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Hatayspor and 67% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hatayspor's games and 48% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hatayspor's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Hatayspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Hatayspor 1-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.28 xG and Rizespor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Rizespor attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 38% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 31%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 49%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.91 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.