Hatayspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Beşiktaş and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 48% | Beşiktaş 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.84 xG and Beşiktaş 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.797 / defence 1.006 | Beşiktaş attack 0.949 / defence 0.669. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.288. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.669 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Hatayspor games / 50 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 24% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 44%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Beşiktaş 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 50% | Beşiktaş 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 2 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 24% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Hatayspor 0.84 / Beşiktaş 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.797 / def 1.006 | Beşiktaş attack 0.949 / def 0.669 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Beşiktaş xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 2 December 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 24% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hatayspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.95x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
24%
4.25
33%
3.06
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.07
1.23
Beşiktaş xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.23 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 10W 18D 22L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 22W 11D 17L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.46 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 18D 22L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 64%, Beşiktaş 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hatayspor) and 48% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 32%; Hatayspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hatayspor's games and 52% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hatayspor's recent games and 48% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.84 xG and Beşiktaş 1.23 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 0.95 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 24% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 44%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 48%, Beşiktaş 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.