Hatayspor 2-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Hatayspor welcome Ankaragücü to Mersin Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Mersin Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ankaragücü — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ankaragücü have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Hatayspor) versus 1.00 (Ankaragücü). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ankaragücü in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hatayspor, 2 for Ankaragücü and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Ankaragücü trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 41% versus Ankaragücü 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 62% | Ankaragücü 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Ankaragücü 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.856 / defence 1.167 | Ankaragücü attack 0.949 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Data: 71 Hatayspor games / 71 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 37% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 34%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Ankaragücü 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Ankaragücü 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 37% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Hatayspor 1.42 / Ankaragücü 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.856 / def 1.167 | Ankaragücü attack 0.949 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ankaragücü xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Hatayspor 2 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 37% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hatayspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Ankaragücü 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.44
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.37
Ankaragücü xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.37 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 13W 18D 40L from 71 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 30L across 71 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.80 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 9W 11D 15L from 35 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 8W 9D 18L across 35 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 63%.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 13W 18D 40L in their last 71 games (0.80 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 20W 21D 30L in their last 71 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.09 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Ankaragücü won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
2
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Hatayspor 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Ankaragücü?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 51%, Ankaragücü 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hatayspor and 51% for Ankaragücü. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Hatayspor's games and 69% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hatayspor's matches and 51% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Hatayspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Ankaragücü 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Ankaragücü 2-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.42 xG and Ankaragücü 1.37 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Ankaragücü attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 37% | Draw 29% | Ankaragücü 34%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 62%, Ankaragücü 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.80 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.