Giresunspor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 13 as Giresunspor welcome Yeni Malatyaspor to Çotanak Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Çotanak Stadyumu this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yeni Malatyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 2W 0D 3L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Giresunspor 1.00 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Giresunspor trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Giresunspor 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 17% | Yeni Malatyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 0.94 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.704 / defence 1.091 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.684 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.111. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Giresunspor games / 12 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 36% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Yeni Malatyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 36% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Giresunspor 0.94 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.704 / def 1.091 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.684 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Giresunspor 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 36% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.70) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
36%
2.74
33%
3.01
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
1.77
0.83
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.83 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form line: 4W 0D 8L from 12 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 0.83 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 0D 8L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Giresunspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Giresunspor 40% BTTS, Yeni Malatyaspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Giresunspor and 20% for Yeni Malatyaspor.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 40%; Giresunspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Giresunspor's recent games and 20% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Giresunspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 0.94 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.83 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Yeni Malatyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 36% | Draw 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 30%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 17%, Yeni Malatyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 0.83 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.