Giresunspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Giresunspor take on Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Kayserispor travel to Çotanak Stadyumu to take on Giresunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.17 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.17 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 0W 1D 2L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 0.33 PPG.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 3W 1D 2L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kayserispor are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.17), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Giresunspor 17% | Kayserispor 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 17% | Kayserispor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 0.80 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.569 / defence 1.067 | Kayserispor attack 0.782 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.021. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.569 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Giresunspor games / 6 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 31% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 34%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Kayserispor 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Giresunspor's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 0% | Kayserispor 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 31% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Giresunspor 0.80 / Kayserispor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.569 / def 1.067 | Kayserispor attack 0.782 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kayserispor xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Giresunspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Giresunspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 31% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Giresunspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Kayserispor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.88
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
1.65
0.85
Kayserispor xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.85 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Giresunspor come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Giresunspor's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 0.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Giresunspor have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kayserispor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Early Season
Kayserispor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Kayserispor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 0.33 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
1
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Giresunspor 1-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Giresunspor 0% BTTS, Kayserispor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Giresunspor and 67% for Kayserispor.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kayserispor in 33%; Giresunspor have failed to score in 100% of games; Kayserispor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 33% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Giresunspor's recent games and 67% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, as Giresunspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 0.80 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.57 / defence 1.07 against Kayserispor attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 31% | Draw 35% | Kayserispor 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 17%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.