Gaziantep FK 1-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Gaziantep Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kayserispor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.70 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Kayserispor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 49% | Kayserispor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.068 / defence 0.868 | Kayserispor attack 0.965 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.323. Data: 49 Gaziantep FK games / 50 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Kayserispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Kayserispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.39 / Kayserispor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.068 / def 0.868 | Kayserispor attack 0.965 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kayserispor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 2 Kayserispor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 43% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 2 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.96x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.75
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.50
1.11
Kayserispor xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.11 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 16W 13D 20L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 18L across 49 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.37 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 13W 9D 1L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 3W 8D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.45 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kayserispor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.09 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Kayserispor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 3-0 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 61%, Kayserispor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gaziantep FK) and 52% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kayserispor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Gaziantep FK's games and 65% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 52% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Kayserispor attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 30%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 49%, Kayserispor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG, Kayserispor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.