Galatasaray 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Galatasaray welcome Kasımpaşa to NEF Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Galatasaray — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's home record at NEF Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Galatasaray are significantly better at NEF Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Galatasaray, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Galatasaray in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 52% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 48% | Kasımpaşa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.09 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.882 / defence 1.079 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.780 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.086. Data: 21 Galatasaray games / 21 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 39% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 30%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Kasımpaşa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galatasaray offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Galatasaray 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 39% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Galatasaray 1.09 / Kasımpaşa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.882 / def 1.079 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.780 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kasımpaşa xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 20 January 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Galatasaray 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 39% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Galatasaray's attack rating (0.88) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Galatasaray's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.22
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.01
0.91
Kasımpaşa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.91 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Galatasaray come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 6D 8L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Galatasaray on 1.29 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Galatasaray's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Galatasaray are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Galatasaray are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.14 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.70 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2025, when Galatasaray won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Galatasaray's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Galatasaray
3
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 5, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 50%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Galatasaray and 30% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Galatasaray's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Galatasaray's recent games and 30% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Galatasaray.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Galatasaray 1-3 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.09 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.91 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 39% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 30%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 48%, Kasımpaşa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.29 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.