Galatasaray 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to NEF Stadyumu to face Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 14 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at NEF Stadyumu, Galatasaray have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beşiktaş's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beşiktaş are 0.60 PPG clear of Galatasaray in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Galatasaray — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 61% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 50% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.40 xG and Beşiktaş 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 0.994 / defence 1.240 | Beşiktaş attack 0.913 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.248. Data: 28 Galatasaray games / 28 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 37% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 38%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 70% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 37% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Galatasaray 1.40 / Beşiktaş 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 0.994 / def 1.240 | Beşiktaş attack 0.913 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Galatasaray 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş part of?
Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 37% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Galatasaray and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Galatasaray's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.91x) against Galatasaray's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
37%
2.70
25%
3.95
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.81
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.41 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Galatasaray's recent record stands at 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 7L across 28 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.61 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Galatasaray have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 3W 6D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galatasaray have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 12W 9D 7L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Beşiktaş away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.50 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 6, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-1 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 64%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Galatasaray) and 43% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Galatasaray's games and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Galatasaray's recent games and 43% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Galatasaray defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.40 xG and Beşiktaş 1.41 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 0.99 / defence 1.24 against Beşiktaş attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 37% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 38%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Galatasaray win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 50%, Beşiktaş 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.25 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.