Göztepe 3-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Göztepe face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Göztepe welcome Rizespor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Göztepe have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Göztepe at home: 6W 1D 0L from their last 7 home games — 2.71 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rizespor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Göztepe at 1.60 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Göztepe, 2 for Rizespor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2022, ended Göztepe 1–7 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 67% versus Rizespor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 60% | Rizespor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.83 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.145 / defence 0.989 | Rizespor attack 0.899 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.164. Data: built from Göztepe's last 15 games and Rizespor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.85 | Draw 3.75 | Rizespor 5.20. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 7 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Göztepe 57% (last 7 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Göztepe 1.83 / Rizespor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.145 / def 0.989 | Rizespor attack 0.899 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rizespor xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Rizespor kick off?
Göztepe vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe 3 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Göztepe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Rizespor part of?
Göztepe vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 54% chance of winning, Rizespor a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Göztepe and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Göztepe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.15) and Rizespor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 15 games and Rizespor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.75
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.87
1.03
Rizespor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
32.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.03 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 4D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.67 PPG, Rizespor on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across their last 7 home games, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Rizespor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.71 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won Göztepe 1-7 Rizespor.
Göztepe's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 57%, Rizespor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Göztepe and 57% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Göztepe's recent matches and 43% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Göztepe and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Göztepe's matches and 57% of Rizespor's.
Do Göztepe and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Göztepe's recent matches and 86% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Rizespor 3-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.83 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Rizespor attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Rizespor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.67 PPG, Rizespor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.