Göztepe 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Antalyaspor travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Göztepe have posted 8W 1D 0L at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.78 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Göztepe, 0 for Antalyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 61% versus Antalyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 67% | Antalyaspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 3.00 xG and Antalyaspor 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.436 / defence 0.798 | Antalyaspor attack 0.804 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.168. Göztepe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 3.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Göztepe games / 56 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 81% | Draw 14% | Antalyaspor 5%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.23 | Draw 7.14 | Antalyaspor 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (81%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 44% | Antalyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 81% | Draw 14% | Antalyaspor 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 51% | xG Göztepe 3.00 / Antalyaspor 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.436 / def 0.798 | Antalyaspor attack 0.804 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.00
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Antalyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Göztepe 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 81% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 5% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Göztepe and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.00. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 4-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
81%
1.23
14%
7.24
5%
19.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.00
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.75
0.75
Antalyaspor xG
1.23
81%
Home win
7.24
14%
Draw
19.46
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
5%
20.05
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.00 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.75 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 9W 4D 5L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.78 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 44%, Antalyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Göztepe and 56% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Göztepe's recent matches and 56% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Göztepe's matches and 56% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Göztepe and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 3.00 xG and Antalyaspor 0.75 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.44 / defence 0.80 against Antalyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 81% | Draw 14% | Antalyaspor 5%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 67%, Antalyaspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.