Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Eyüpspor travel to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fenerbahçe 1.50 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Eyüpspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 62% versus Eyüpspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 64% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.277 / defence 1.219 | Eyüpspor attack 0.766 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.176. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Fenerbahçe games / 39 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Eyüpspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 90% | Eyüpspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.18 / Eyüpspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.277 / def 1.219 | Eyüpspor attack 0.766 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Eyüpspor xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe 8 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 2 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.03
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.28
1.10
Eyüpspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
48.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.10 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 39 games, going 23W 12D 4L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.92 PPG from 39 outings (9W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 12W 6D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.90 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 12D 4L in their last 39 games (2.08 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.21 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2026, when Fenerbahçe won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 79%, Eyüpspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fenerbahçe) and 47% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Fenerbahçe's games and 42% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 47% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Eyüpspor 8-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 5.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 1.22 against Eyüpspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 64%, Eyüpspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.