Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor encounter.

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Analysis

Hatayspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hatayspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Hatayspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Hatayspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 Hatayspor — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 65% versus Hatayspor 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 65% | Hatayspor 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Hatayspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Hatayspor surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Fatih Karagümrük recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.976 / defence 0.953 | Hatayspor attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.378. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 40 games and Hatayspor's last 40.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.64 | Draw 3.06 | Hatayspor 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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