Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Göztepe travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
Göztepe — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Göztepe away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fatih Karagümrük are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 49% versus Göztepe 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 51% | Göztepe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.83 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.018 / defence 0.918 | Göztepe attack 0.759 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.336. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Fatih Karagümrük games / 35 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 17%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Göztepe 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.83 / Göztepe 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.018 / def 0.918 | Göztepe attack 0.759 / def 1.484 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Göztepe xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 57% chance of winning, Göztepe a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.02x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.91
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.76
0.93
Göztepe xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.93 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 15W 8D 12L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 7W 7D 21L from 35 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.11 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 8D 12L in their last 35 games (1.51 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 7D 21L in their last 35 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Göztepe away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.88 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Göztepe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fatih Karagümrük at 47%, Göztepe at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 76% (Göztepe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 88% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 76% of Göztepe's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Göztepe 3-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.83 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Göztepe attack 0.76 / defence 1.48, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 17%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 51%, Göztepe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.