Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Fenerbahçe in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 4–5 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Fenerbahçe 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Fenerbahçe 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.61 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.279 / defence 1.261 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.330 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.302. Fatih Karagümrük carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 2.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Fatih Karagümrük games / 63 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 28% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 28% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.61 / Fenerbahçe 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.279 / def 1.261 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.330 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 28% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.28) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.33x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.18.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
28%
3.51
21%
4.87
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.79
2.18
Fenerbahçe xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
11%
8.87
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
3%
31.15
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.18 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 19D 20L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 38W 13D 12L from 63 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.68 PPG from 31 outings (14W 10D 7L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 18W 7D 6L from 31 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.16 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 24W 19D 20L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 38W 13D 12L in their last 63 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.68 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Fenerbahçe 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 61% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 64% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 61% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.61 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.18 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.28 / defence 1.26 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.33 / defence 0.75, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 28% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 59%, Fenerbahçe 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.