Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Fatih Karagümrük's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Beşiktaş 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Beşiktaş 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG and Beşiktaş 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.858 / defence 1.220 | Beşiktaş attack 1.090 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.362. Data: 13 Fatih Karagümrük games / 49 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 18% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 55%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Beşiktaş 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 18% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 / Beşiktaş 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.858 / def 1.220 | Beşiktaş attack 1.090 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Beşiktaş xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 18% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 5W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.09x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 13/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
18%
5.41
27%
3.76
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.80
1.81
Beşiktaş xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
33.15
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.81 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 2W 2D 9L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 4L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.57 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 29%, Beşiktaş 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 43% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 57% of games; Beşiktaş in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 43% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 43% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG and Beşiktaş 1.81 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 18% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 55%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.