Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Fatih Karagümrük. A 0.70 PPG lead over Antalyaspor (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–4 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 60% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Antalyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.33 xG and Antalyaspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.334 / defence 1.233 | Antalyaspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.396. Fatih Karagümrük carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Fatih Karagümrük games / 67 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 20% | Antalyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | Antalyaspor 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Antalyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Fatih Karagümrük carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 20% | Antalyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.33 / Antalyaspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.334 / def 1.233 | Antalyaspor attack 0.851 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Antalyaspor xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 57% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.33) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
57%
1.76
20%
5.11
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.79
1.47
Antalyaspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
10%
10.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
2%
43.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.47 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 26W 20D 21L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 25W 17D 25L from 67 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.37 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (15W 10D 8L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 8W 9D 16L from 33 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 26W 20D 21L in their last 67 games (1.46 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 25W 17D 25L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.67 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 64%, Antalyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 46% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 46% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 46% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.33 xG and Antalyaspor 1.47 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.33 / defence 1.23 against Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Draw 20% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Antalyaspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.46 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.