Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Çorum FK at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Çorum FK at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Çorum FK — 0.92 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.62 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 1 for Çorum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Çorum FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 88% of games.
Çorum FK trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 12% versus Çorum FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eyüpspor 50% | Çorum FK 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Çorum FK 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / defence 1.245 | Çorum FK attack 1.482 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 8 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 23% | Draw 21% | Çorum FK 56%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Çorum FK 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Çorum FK (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 20% | Çorum FK 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 23% | Draw 21% | Çorum FK 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Eyüpspor 1.33 / Çorum FK 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / def 1.245 | Çorum FK attack 1.482 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Çorum FK xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 23% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Eyüpspor and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Çorum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Çorum FK 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Çorum FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Çorum FK (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.70x the league average against Çorum FK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Çorum FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
23%
4.35
21%
4.88
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.49
2.16
Çorum FK xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
12%
8.68
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
3%
37.74
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 2.16 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 0D 7L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Çorum FK sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Çorum FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Çorum FK have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Çorum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games; Çorum FK in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Çorum FK away?
Çorum FK's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Çorum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Çorum FK 3-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Çorum FK?
Çorum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 25%, Çorum FK 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eyüpspor and 100% for Çorum FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 75% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eyüpspor's matches and 100% of Çorum FK's.
Do Eyüpspor and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.