Eyüpspor 2-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 20 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eyüpspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 52% and Kasımpaşa 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.03 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.061 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.886 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.323. Data: 44 Eyüpspor games / 44 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 39%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Kasımpaşa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Eyüpspor 1.03 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.900 / def 1.061 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.886 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 October 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Eyüpspor 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 28% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.89x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.05
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.27
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 16W 10D 18L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 14L across 44 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.27 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 8W 8D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.59 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 17D 14L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.68 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Eyüpspor and 64% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Eyüpspor's games and 59% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Eyüpspor's matches and 64% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.03 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 39%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.