Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Beşiktaş travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Beşiktaş, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Eyüpspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Beşiktaş trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.24 xG and Beşiktaş 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Eyüpspor 1.24 / Beşiktaş 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / def 0.937 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Beşiktaş xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 40% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.55
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.06
Beşiktaş xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.06 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 9L across 37 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 39%, Beşiktaş 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eyüpspor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 33%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 44% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.