Eyüpspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 58%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Eyüpspor welcome Amed to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's home record at : 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Amed — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Amed's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Eyüpspor 33% | Amed 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 33% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.68 xG and Amed 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 58% | Draw 24% | Amed 18%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Amed 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Amed 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 58% | Draw 24% | Amed 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Eyüpspor 1.68 / Amed 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / def 0.937 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Amed xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Amed kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Amed part of?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 58% chance of winning, Amed a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Amed's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.16
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.82
Amed xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
29.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.82 for Amed, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Eyüpspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Eyüpspor 33% BTTS, Amed 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Eyüpspor) and 67% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Amed in 33%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 67% of games; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Amed tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.