Bodrum FK 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bodrum FK 1W, Hatayspor 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Bodrum FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 30% versus Hatayspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodrum FK 30% | Hatayspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.12 xG and Hatayspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.555 / defence 0.835 | Hatayspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.207. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.555 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Bodrum FK games / 61 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 38% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Hatayspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodrum FK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 30% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 38% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Bodrum FK 1.12 / Hatayspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.555 / def 0.835 | Hatayspor attack 0.976 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hatayspor xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor?
Bodrum FK 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 38% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bodrum FK and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 1W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Hatayspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bodrum FK's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.98x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
38%
2.67
32%
3.12
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
Hatayspor xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 0.98 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 5D 13L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 2W 7D 14L from 23 games, 0.57 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Bodrum FK against 0.57 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.04 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 2W 7D 14L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Hatayspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 2, Hatayspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Bodrum FK 1-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Hatayspor?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodrum FK tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 30%, Hatayspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Bodrum FK) and 60% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 60% of games; Hatayspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 60% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 60% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodrum FK edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.12 xG and Hatayspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.56 / defence 0.83 against Hatayspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 38% | Draw 32% | Hatayspor 30%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 30%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 0.87 PPG, Hatayspor 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.