Beşiktaş 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Alanyaspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tüpraş Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.20 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 53% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 47% | Alanyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.050 / defence 1.083 | Alanyaspor attack 0.748 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.172. Data: 53 Beşiktaş games / 53 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 60% | Alanyaspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Beşiktaş 1.51 / Alanyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.050 / def 1.083 | Alanyaspor attack 0.748 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 48% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.33
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
20.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.95 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 23W 12D 18L from 53 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 16L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.53 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 15W 4D 7L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 6W 10D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 21D 16L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.88 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Alanyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beşiktaş) and 38% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 46% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 38% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Alanyaspor attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 47%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.53 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.