Beşiktaş 1-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Alanyaspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tüpraş Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 59% versus Alanyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.007 / defence 0.855 | Alanyaspor attack 0.678 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.261. Data: 51 Beşiktaş games / 51 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Beşiktaş 1.67 / Alanyaspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.007 / def 0.855 | Alanyaspor attack 0.678 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 59% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.96
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.40
0.73
Alanyaspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
34.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.73 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 31W 11D 9L from 51 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 24L across 51 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 18W 5D 2L from 25 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 31W 11D 9L in their last 51 games (2.04 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.36 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 64% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Alanyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.